diff --git a/cmd/orchestra-worker/main.go b/cmd/orchestra-worker/main.go
index b37bfa9..3bbc732 100644
--- a/cmd/orchestra-worker/main.go
+++ b/cmd/orchestra-worker/main.go
@@ -112,6 +112,9 @@ type lease struct {
 	Version            int       `json:"version"`
 	Until              time.Time `json:"until"`
 	UsageBaseline      float64   `json:"usage_baseline,omitempty"`
+	// ProgressSHA hashes the pane capture taken at the last renewal. Renewal
+	// requires the pane to have changed since then, or the agent to be busy.
+	ProgressSHA string `json:"progress_sha,omitempty"`
 }
 type releaseTransaction struct {
 	ID            string    `json:"id"`
@@ -958,10 +961,31 @@ func (w *worker) renewLeases(ctx context.Context) {
 		if !ok || l.Version == 0 || l.Until.After(now.Add(10*time.Minute)) {
 			continue
 		}
-		if _, err := (herdr.CLIAdapter{Backend: w.executionBackend(), Harness: w.harness}).PaneCapture(ctx, s, "recent"); err != nil {
+		adapter := herdr.CLIAdapter{Backend: w.executionBackend(), Harness: w.harness}
+		text, err := adapter.PaneCapture(ctx, s, "recent")
+		if err != nil {
 			w.recordError(fmt.Errorf("validate lease %s: %w", taskID, err))
 			continue
 		}
+		// A live pane is not progress. Renewing on pane existence alone let a
+		// pane that opened and never started hold its lease forever, which is
+		// what orphaned the July task once the launch itself had failed.
+		status, err := adapter.AgentStatus(ctx, s)
+		if err != nil {
+			w.recordError(fmt.Errorf("validate lease %s: %w", taskID, err))
+			continue
+		}
+		progress := domain.Hash([]byte(text))
+		switch {
+		case herdr.IsBusy(status):
+		case progress != l.ProgressSHA && l.ProgressSHA != "":
+		case l.ProgressSHA == "":
+			// First renewal has no baseline to compare against. Record one and
+			// allow this renewal; the next one must show real movement.
+		default:
+			w.recordError(fmt.Errorf("lease %s not renewed: agent status %s and pane unchanged since the last renewal", taskID, status))
+			continue
+		}
 		if err := w.api.Renew(ctx, taskID, l.Epoch, l.Version, int((30 * time.Minute).Seconds())); err != nil {
 			w.recordError(fmt.Errorf("renew lease %s: %w", taskID, err))
 			log.Printf("renew lease %s: %v", taskID, err)
@@ -970,6 +994,7 @@ func (w *worker) renewLeases(ctx context.Context) {
 			// replay arrives so a release transaction uses the same version.
 			l.Version++
 			l.Until = now.Add(30 * time.Minute)
+			l.ProgressSHA = progress
 			w.leases[taskID] = l
 			_ = w.save()
 		}
diff --git a/cmd/orchestra-worker/main_test.go b/cmd/orchestra-worker/main_test.go
index ff124aa..f52824d 100644
--- a/cmd/orchestra-worker/main_test.go
+++ b/cmd/orchestra-worker/main_test.go
@@ -371,6 +371,7 @@ func mustJSON(v any) []byte { b, _ := json.Marshal(v); return b }
 
 type recordingBackend struct {
 	status  string
+	capture string
 	calls   []string
 	prompts []string
 }
@@ -395,7 +396,43 @@ func (b *recordingBackend) AgentStatus(context.Context, herdr.Session) (string,
 	return b.status, nil
 }
 func (b *recordingBackend) PaneCapture(context.Context, herdr.Session, string) (string, error) {
-	return "", nil
+	return b.capture, nil
+}
+
+func TestRenewLeasesRequiresProgress(t *testing.T) {
+	renewals := 0
+	api := httptest.NewServer(http.HandlerFunc(func(rw http.ResponseWriter, r *http.Request) {
+		renewals++
+		rw.Write([]byte(`{}`))
+	}))
+	defer api.Close()
+	backend := &recordingBackend{status: "idle", capture: "same screen"}
+	w := &worker{
+		api:         federation.Client{BaseURL: api.URL, WorkerID: "h", Token: "t"},
+		backend:     backend,
+		harness:     "claude",
+		sessions:    map[string]herdr.Session{"task": {PaneID: "pane"}},
+		leases:      map[string]lease{"task": {Epoch: "e", Version: 1, Until: time.Now(), ProgressSHA: domain.Hash([]byte("same screen"))}},
+		quarantined: map[string]bool{},
+		statePath:   filepath.Join(t.TempDir(), "state.json"),
+	}
+	w.renewLeases(context.Background())
+	if renewals != 0 {
+		t.Fatalf("idle pane with an unchanged capture renewed its lease %d times", renewals)
+	}
+	backend.status = "busy"
+	w.renewLeases(context.Background())
+	if renewals != 1 {
+		t.Fatalf("busy agent renewals=%d, want 1", renewals)
+	}
+	backend.status, backend.capture = "idle", "new output"
+	l := w.leases["task"]
+	l.Until = time.Now()
+	w.leases["task"] = l
+	w.renewLeases(context.Background())
+	if renewals != 2 {
+		t.Fatalf("changed capture renewals=%d, want 2", renewals)
+	}
 }
 func (b *recordingBackend) SendText(_ context.Context, _ herdr.Session, text string) error {
 	b.calls = append(b.calls, "text:"+text)