diff --git a/internal/herdr/tmux.go b/internal/herdr/tmux.go
index b086aa3..7e7d888 100644
--- a/internal/herdr/tmux.go
+++ b/internal/herdr/tmux.go
@@ -461,6 +461,18 @@ func (b *TmuxBackend) PaneProgress(ctx context.Context, s Session) (string, erro
 // first: three exact-editor resubmits, then observation only.
 const launchResubmitLimit = 3
 
+// launchSettle is how long an empty editor must stay empty before it counts as
+// proof of submission. A TUI takes tens of milliseconds to render pasted text,
+// and the first poll can run inside that gap. F33: a poll 7ms after the submit
+// found nothing in the editor, reported confirmation=editor_cleared, and the
+// launch text then sat unsent in the input box for the rest of the lease. The
+// two launches that actually worked took ~500ms and a second Enter, so the
+// difference between success and this false positive was scheduling luck.
+//
+// Only the never-observed case waits. Text seen and then gone is real
+// evidence, and busy, blocked or queued still confirm immediately.
+const launchSettle = time.Second
+
 // ConfirmInput drives the submit to a decision instead of assuming one Enter
 // landed. Burn-in run 3 proved the submit is not deterministic: the text
 // reached the editor on all three attempts and the following Enter never took
@@ -487,12 +499,18 @@ func (b *TmuxBackend) ConfirmInput(ctx context.Context, s Session, submitted str
 			kind, attempts, first.UTC().Format(time.RFC3339Nano), b.now().UTC().Format(time.RFC3339Nano))
 	}
 	var last InputState
+	// Whether the editor was ever observed holding what we submitted. Without
+	// it, "empty" is indistinguishable from "not rendered yet".
+	seen := false
 	for {
 		state, err := b.inputState(ctx, s)
 		if err != nil {
 			return "", err
 		}
 		last = state
+		if state.Active && sameInput(state.Text, submitted) {
+			seen = true
+		}
 		switch {
 		case state.Active && sameInput(state.Text, submitted):
 			// Exactly what was submitted still owns the cursor, so the submit
@@ -529,6 +547,12 @@ func (b *TmuxBackend) ConfirmInput(ctx context.Context, s Session, submitted str
 				// session now needs an operator.
 				return evidence("blocked"), nil
 			default:
+				// An editor that never held the text may simply not have
+				// rendered it yet. Give it the settle window before calling an
+				// empty box proof that the harness took the prompt.
+				if !seen && b.now().Sub(first) < launchSettle {
+					break
+				}
 				return evidence("editor_cleared"), nil
 			}
 		}
diff --git a/internal/herdr/tmux_test.go b/internal/herdr/tmux_test.go
index b358439..52d34f1 100644
--- a/internal/herdr/tmux_test.go
+++ b/internal/herdr/tmux_test.go
@@ -445,3 +445,49 @@ func TestMissingSessionIsRecognisedOnAnEmptyRunningServer(t *testing.T) {
 		}
 	}
 }
+
+// TestEmptyEditorIsNotProofBeforeItEverHeldTheText guards F33. The submit
+// races the TUI's render: a poll 7ms after Enter found an empty editor, called
+// it confirmation=editor_cleared, and the launch text then sat unsent for the
+// whole lease. Run 5 died on exactly that. An editor that never held the text
+// has to keep being observed, and once the text appears the resubmit path can
+// do its job.
+func TestEmptyEditorIsNotProofBeforeItEverHeldTheText(t *testing.T) {
+	dir := t.TempDir()
+	bin := filepath.Join(dir, "tmux")
+	calls := filepath.Join(dir, "calls")
+	// capture-pane reports an empty editor on the first two polls, exactly as a
+	// TUI that has not rendered the paste yet, then shows the submitted text.
+	script := `#!/bin/sh
+cmd=""
+for a in "$@"; do
+  case "$a" in capture-pane|has-session|display-message|send-keys) cmd=$a; break;; esac
+done
+case "$cmd" in
+  has-session) exit 0 ;;
+  send-keys) exit 0 ;;
+  display-message)
+    case "$*" in
+      *cursor_y*) printf '1\n' ;;
+      *) printf '0\tclaude\n' ;;
+    esac
+    exit 0 ;;
+  capture-pane)
+    n=$(cat ` + calls + ` 2>/dev/null || echo 0); n=$((n+1)); echo $n > ` + calls + `
+    if [ "$n" -le 2 ]; then printf '\xe2\x9d\xaf \n\n'; else printf '\xe2\x9d\xaf hello world\n\n'; fi
+    exit 0 ;;
+esac
+exit 0
+`
+	if err := os.WriteFile(bin, []byte(script), 0o755); err != nil {
+		t.Fatal(err)
+	}
+	b := &TmuxBackend{Binary: bin, LaunchConfirmTimeout: 300 * time.Millisecond, LaunchConfirmPoll: 5 * time.Millisecond}
+	_, err := b.ConfirmInput(context.Background(), Session{PaneID: "s:1.0"}, "hello world")
+	if err == nil {
+		t.Fatal("an editor still holding the submitted text was reported as confirmed")
+	}
+	if !errors.Is(err, ErrPromptNotSubmitted) {
+		t.Fatalf("err=%v, want ErrPromptNotSubmitted", err)
+	}
+}